Until now it was believed that the most reliable signs of a volcanic eruption were two: a more intense seismic activity than normal and a significant deformation of the surrounding terrain. But, many times, volcanoes erupt without warning , with tragic consequences. Is there a way, then, to predict these natural disasters? Can we anticipate the outbursts of fury from the bowels of the earth?
An investigation carried out by geologists from the British universities of Oxford and Durham, published in Nature Geoscience , suggests that perhaps we should be looking for another clue that is not taken into account: the composition of the gases that emerge to the surface .
To reach this conclusion, experts have examined the small crystals of a mineral (called apatite) abundant in the Flegrean Fields, an extensive volcanic area located northwest of the city of Naples . In one of its craters, Lake Avernus, the ancient Romans located the gates of Hades, the hell of Greco-Roman mythology.
The apatites were thrown during the last period of activity of the Flegrean Fields, in 1538, and allow to establish the evolution of the magma in the eruption process. Thus, it has been found that the igneous mass was filled with gas bubbles just moments before the catastrophic event. And this abrupt change, British scientists indicate, could register on the surface of the volcano and alert the surrounding population .
While waiting to see that this pattern is repeated in other ancient eruptions, the study authors propose that increased seismic activity and ground deformation may indicate that magma is accumulating deep within the volcano . The explosion, then, would not necessarily have to be imminent.
