Global eradication of the COVID-19 pandemic is feasible. It is even more so than for polio, although considerably less than for smallpox, suggests a comparative score of the three infections that has been published in the online journal BMJ Global Health.
Is COVID-19 potentially eradicable?
The answer is yes.
Vaccines, public health measures such as face masks and social distancing, and “unprecedented” global motivation could make it possible, according to researchers at the University of Otago, New Zealand. Each of these factors was scored on a three-point system with the goal of “permanent zeroing of the global incidence of infection caused by a specific agent as a result of deliberate efforts.” This is something that we have only achieved for smallpox and for two of the three versions of the poliovirus.
The scientists weighed in on factors including controversy over the vaccine (anti-vaccines) and mutations that could make the virus more infectious or resistant to punctures. COVID had a mean score of 1.6, while smallpox received 2.7 and polio was estimated at 1.5. This means that eradicating it is possible. Experts said their findings show that we should continue to work to determine whether the world is rightly aiming to eradicate the virus.
“While our analysis is a preliminary endeavor, with several subjective components, it appears to put COVID-19 eradication in the realm of being possible, especially in terms of technical feasibility,” the experts explain.
Progress
The data revealed that 30% of the planet has received a dose of a vaccine and 15.5% are fully immunized, according to Our World in Data. But only 1.1% of people in low-income countries have received a single dose.
Although on a global scale SARS-CoV-2 is seeking to stay at all costs , on a small scale, some places have managed to eliminate the virus, even without vaccination. Nations like China, or smaller ones like Iceland and New Zealand managed to temporarily eliminate the virus before vaccines were launched, through border control, the use of masks, physical distancing, testing and contact tracing.
However, while the numbers say it is possible, it is not entirely certain that it will happen without political will, economic investment and a social understanding of why it is important to protect other people. It would not be an easy task, but it would save hundreds of thousands of lives and prevent millions from developing prolonged COVID.
On the other hand, some scientists believe that the virus will eventually morph into something akin to the common cold, as immunity builds over time, eliminating the need for stricter public health measures .
Reference: “We should not dismiss the possibility of eradicating COVID-19: comparisons with smallpox and polio” by Nick Wilson, Osman D Mansoor, Matthew J Boyd, Amanda Kvalsvig and Michael G Baker, 9 August 2021, BMJ Global Health.
DOI: 10.1136 / bmjgh-2021-006810
