Although the estimate of confirmed COVID-19 cases has reached almost 1.4 million people at the time of this publication, the actual number of cases could have reached several tens of million , according to a new study developed by scientists at the University. from Göttingen and published in The Lancet Infectious Diseases.
Thus, the confirmed cases for the new coronavirus disease officially issued by countries and widely disseminated by the national and international media dramatically underestimate the true number of infections.
The experts used estimates of mortality and time to death from COVID-19 from another recent study to test the quality of official case records. Their data shows that countries have only discovered on average about 6% of coronavirus infections and that the true number of infected people worldwide may have already reached several tens of millions.
Due to different delays and inadequacies in testing in different countries, the numbers may not accurately reflect the number of actual infections. And we all know that assessing the severity of the pandemic is crucial to identifying appropriate mitigation strategies.
The submerged area of the COVID-19 iceberg
“However, the crude case fatality ratios obtained by dividing the number of deaths by the number of cases can be misleading, ” the authors write. This is because it can take a couple of weeks for a person to develop symptoms; later the case is detected and, finally, it is reported and accounted for.
The delay in testing and the lack of it may explain why some European countries like Italy and Spain are experiencing a far higher death toll than confirmed coronavirus cases. According to his calculations, the number of real infected in Spain would be more than 5 million (our country only detects 1.7% of cases, according to the study) and Italy around 2 million.
Much of the data that inform us of global estimates of the fatality rate comes from the early outbreak in Wuhan, China. As the health system in this city was quickly overwhelmed, the authors suggest that there is a substantial underestimation of cases in younger age groups compared to other places in China.
“The case fatality rate is likely to be strongly influenced by the availability of health care facilities,” the experts add.
The total volume of infections in the world must now be in the tens of millions
The researchers predict that with the continued spread of COVID-19 and the proportion of people requiring hospitalization, “even the most advanced healthcare systems are likely to be overwhelmed.”
“These results represent that governments and policy makers need to be very careful when interpreting case numbers for planning purposes,” says Sebastian Vollmer, professor of development economics at the University of Göttingen on quantity and quality. of the tests carried out in the different countries; the official case records are not informative and do not provide useful information. “
In Spain
In Spain, the Ministry of Health has admitted that a large part of those infected are not registered. At least 15 out of 16 affected by the coronavirus in Spain is not counted, hence a massive test campaign will be carried out to have a more realistic image of the incidence of COVID-19 outside hospitals.
Referencia: Original publication: Bommer C & Vollmer S (2020) Average detection rate of SARS-CoV-2 infections is estimated around six percent. www.uni-goettingen.de/de/docum … on%20April%202nd.pdf
Background publication: Verity et al. “Estimates of the severity of coronavirus disease 2019: a model-based analysis. The Lancet Infectious Diseases 2020. DOI: 10.1016/S1473-3099(20)30243-7
