Up to what age could human beings live? At least until the age of 130 and potentially much longer , according to research published in the journal Royal Society Open Science. The study set out to determine if there is an upper limit on human life expectancy.
Logically, the chances that most of us will live that long are very slim since, although statistically we could live to be 130, after 110 years, the chances of staying alive are 50%.
There is no maximum age for humans , but this study looked at the most recent data on supercentenarians , which is the term used for people who have survived beyond 110 years, in addition to semi-supercentenarians, who have turned 105 years old. or more (in total, more than 12,000 people). They found that while the risk of death steadily increases as we age, this risk stabilizes and remains constant, with a 50 to 50 chance of living or dying with each passing year. That is, every year after someone’s 110th birthday is like flipping a coin of whether or not they will survive. Getting ‘heads’ – on the coin of life – 20 times in a row, to reach 130 years, is very unlikely really: the chances are one in a million.
Yet despite COVID-19, health care and lifestyle improvements, our average life expectancy will increase and the authors suggest that someone could turn 130 this century. The findings are consistent with similar statistical analyzes performed on data sets from very old people.
“As the world’s population continues to grow, more people are reaching 100 and more reaching 110,” says Léo Belzile, the statistician who led the study at HEC Business School in Montreal, Canada.
The results could have implications for immensely wealthy people like Amazon founder Jeff Bezos, who is investing in an age-reversing tech company.
“A strong empirical understanding of human mortality at extreme ages is important as the basis for research aimed at finding a cure for aging,” the researchers write.
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Not impossible, but highly unlikely
Still, just because humans can theoretically go up to 130 or more, it doesn’t mean we’re likely to see it anytime soon. For starters, the analysis is based on people who have already accomplished the relatively rare feat of reaching 100+ years, which is saying. Of course, as more people reach supercentennial status, the chances that one will become that one-in-a-million advantage (of reaching 130 years of age) will increase.
Right now, the oldest person still living is Japanese Kane Tanaka, who is “only” 118 years old. The Japanese have the highest life expectancy in the world, attributed by experts to a diet high in fish and good health care. In Spain, Saturnino de la Fuente, from León, is the oldest man in the world with 112 years).
Reference: Human mortality at extreme age Léo R. Belzile, Anthony C. Davison, Holger Rootzén and Dmitrii Zholud Published: 29 September 2021 Royal Society Open Science DOI: https://doi.org/10.1098/rsos.202097
