Currently, with the 2016 data in hand, Spain is the fourth country in the world with the longest life expectancy: the average longevity stands at 82.9 years . A position in the elite of global health that we will not only not lose in the coming years, but will even improve substantially. Because an exhaustive study published in the British journal The Lancet raises our country to the first position in 2040, ahead even of Japan , the traditional superpower in this parameter.
After analyzing the death statistics and the evolution of 250 causes of death in 195 countries between 1990 and 2016, the researchers have made two projections for two decades from now: one pessimistic and the other optimistic. In the Spanish case, the worst scenario would register an increase of 0.8 years in life expectancy, and the best, 4.5 . The average increase would remain at 2.8 years, which means that the most likely average longevity according to these calculations will be 85.8 , one tenth above Japan.
In addition to Spain, other countries that will significantly improve their prospects are Syria, China, Nigeria and Indonesia . And among those that fall in the ranking, some places that do not surprise, such as Palestine, but also Canada, Norway, Taiwan, Belgium and the Netherlands. A striking case is that of the United States, currently in 43rd place in the table with 78.7 years of average life expectancy, which will add only 1.1 years to this expectation and drops to 64th position.
The top ten of 2040 would be like this, in this order: Spain, Japan, Singapore, Switzerland, Portugal, Italy, Israel, France, Luxembourg and Australia, while the red lanterns, the places where the population would die younger on average, would be Lesotho, Swaziland, Central African Republic and South Africa.
“The inequalities will continue to be great. In a substantial number of countries, too many people will continue to have very low incomes and little education . But they could progress faster if they face the main risks, especially smoking and poor diet, “explains Christopher Murray, director of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington.
The shadow of chronic diseases
Kyle Foreman, also of the IHME and lead author of the new report, indicates that the six factors that most lead to premature deaths are hypertension, obesity, excess blood sugar, smoking, alcohol consumption and pollution . His work points out that in the coming decades, deaths from non-contagious diseases, such as diabetes, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), chronic kidney disorders, lung cancer and, in general, diseases related to the obesity.
Regarding our country, the five main causes of premature death in 2016 were ischemic heart disease, Alzheimer’s, lung cancer, stroke and COPD, while in 2040 probably, and in line with aging of the population, including Alzheimer’s, ischemic heart disease, lung cancer, COPD, and colon and rectal cancer .
More information: Kyle J Foreman, Neal Marquez and others. “Forecasting life expectancy, years of life lost, and all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 250 causes of death: reference and alternative scenarios for 2016-40 for 195 countries and territories”. The Lancet (October 2018).
