Another Covid-19-scale pandemic is likely to hit the world in the next 60 years, and it could become a much more common event on the planet , a new study published in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences warns.
Experts from the University of Padua in Italy studied the spread of disease around the world over the past 400 years to predict future risk. They found that, statistically, extreme pandemics are not as rare as we thought, and the next one could take place in 2080.
The probability is 2% in any year. This means that a person born in the year 2000 would have about a 38% chance of experiencing a pandemic and will experience another when they turn 60.
The team also found that the likelihood of another major pandemic is increasing and that we should be better prepared for the future.
Methodology
The researchers used new statistical methods to measure the scale and frequency of disease outbreaks without immediate medical intervention . His analysis covered plague, smallpox, cholera, typhus, and a variety of new influenza viruses over the past four centuries. They found considerable variability in the speed at which pandemics occurred in the past, but they also found patterns in the frequency of outbreaks. This allowed them to predict the possibility of events of a similar scale occurring again.
“Understanding that pandemics are not so rare should increase the priority of efforts to prevent and control them in the future,” says William Pan of Duke University.
Is there a probability of the emergence of a pandemic capable of eliminating all human life?
Experts found that a pandemic of this caliber is statistically likely within the next 12,000 years.
Referencia: Intensity and frequency of extreme novel epidemics
Marco Marani, Gabriel G. Katul, William K. Pan, and Anthony J. Parolari
PNAS August 31, 2021 118 (35) e2105482118; https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2105482118
Edited by Simon Asher Levin, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, and approved July 15, 2021 (received for review March 21, 2021)
