FunWhat is the probability that he will hit the...

What is the probability that he will hit the Christmas Lottery Jackpot?

The Christmas Lottery is one of those moments that, like the New Year’s Eve chimes , brings the whole family together in front of television in a moment of expectation that is repeated year after year . If the New Year is a spiritual opportunity to be a better person and get closer to how we would like to be, the Lottery gives us a more palpable glimpse with which to change our lives.

Christmas lottery

The origin of this special draw dates back to the time of the Cortes of Cádiz , during the War of Independence and the occupation of the Napoleonic troops. The minister of the Chamber of the Indies had the idea of creating a new raffle that would contribute to public revenues without harming taxpayers , who already had enough. The first draw was held on December 18, 1811 and was baptized as ‘ Modern Lottery ‘ so that it would not be confused with the already existing Primitive Lottery ( 1763 ) of the Marqués de Esquilache. It would not be until December 23, 1892 when it was given the name ‘ Christmas Lottery ‘.

From the beginning, the mission of singing the numbers to the children of San Ildefonso was entrusted to him and the tradition has been maintained ever since. The famous bass drum and wooden balls with graceful numbers were an addition that was made in 1913 . Until then the numbers were printed on paper. As a historical curiosity, the first Jackpot was awarded to the number 03604 , the ticket cost 40 reais and the prize was 8,000 pesetas.

The lottery, like much of gambling, basically depends on statistics as the only way to measure what chances you have to be the lucky one. Traditionally, the Christmas Lottery consisted of 85,000 numbers and a total of 13,334 prizes to be distributed. With these data, each number had a 15.69% probability that a prize would correspond to it. If withdrawals are discarded, the probability drops to 5.68% . And if the only thing that interests us is the “Fat” , there will only be a 0.000011% chance of receiving the grand prize.

However, since 2011 the number of numbers has increased to 100,000 and the prizes have also increased to 15,304 . With these new figures, the probability is slightly reduced and goes from the previous 15.69% to 15.3% .

Although these figures could be demoralizing , the probability of winning a prize in the Christmas Lottery is still higher than in other drawings . Without going any further, the Primitive Lottery has a total of 13,983,816 of different combinations, so the probability of obtaining one of six hits is 0.000000069 . In the case of the ONCE “coupon”, the probability of hitting it is one in 15 million .

Even with everything, and it is obvious that everyone plays hoping to win, these types of opportunities make us see our dreams closer and continue to believe that we can have the life we want .

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