After seeing Verstappen win comfortably despite starting 14th in Belgium, Mercedes team principal Toto Wolff suggested “we are in a situation where the championship will end in Europe, probably”.
Although technically that’s not possible, Wolff’s exaggerated comment was perhaps proof of how Max Verstappen’s pace may have broken the excitement of the competition.
After Charles Leclerc and Ferrari held the pulse in the first third of the season, Verstappen is now rampaging, depriving the remainder of the 2022 title battle of oxygen.
With just 216 points up for grabs in the last eight races, including one more sprint weekend in Brazil, Verstappen already has a 93-point lead over his closest competitor Sergio Perez and 98 over Leclerc, which makes it look like extremely unlikely that we will have a world championship ending like the historic one in 2021. All Verstappen needs is four wins in the remaining eight races to mathematically seal the title.
Verstappen could win the title already in Singapore, with five races to go, but to do so he needs to win the next three tests in Zandvoort, Monza and Singapore without Pérez and Leclerc scoring a single point. For simplicity, we are going to assume that the winner also gets the bonus point for the fastest lap and then the situations will be as you will see below.
Situation 1: Verstappen wins, and his rivals do not score (neither Pérez nor Leclerc)
| situation after | Belgium | Netherlands | Italy | Singapore | Japan | USA | Mexico | Brazil | Abu Dhabi |
| remaining points | 216 | 190 | 164 | 138 | 112 | 86 | 60 | 26 | |
| Verstappen | 284 points | 310 points | 336 points | 362 points (champion) | already champion | already champion | already champion | already champion | already champion |
| Perez’s deficit | 93 points | 119 points | 145 points | 171 points | no options | no options | no options | no options | no options |
| Leclerc deficit | 98 points | 124 points | 150 points | 176 points | no options | no options | no options | no options | no options |
That’s the most extreme (and least likely) option, so let’s see what’s a little more possible. At Spa, Verstappen took his ninth win of 2022, and our second scenario is that Red Bull now has the fastest car for the rest of the season. If Verstappen were to continue his streak and take the top haul of 26 points at Zandvoort, Monza and Singapore and Perez finish second in each race, that would take the Dutchman to a 117-point lead with 138 to go.
Following the next race at Suzuka, the number of points up for grabs drops to just 112. Pérez would have to overtake his team-mate at least once, and by more than the difference between first and second, to prevent Verstappen Be a two-time champion in Japan.
Scenario 2: Verstappen wins, Perez 2nd and Leclerc 3rd in four races
| situation after | Belgium | Netherlands | Italy | Singapore | Japan | USA | Mexico | Brazil | Abu Dhabi |
| remaining points | 216 | 190 | 164 | 138 | 112 | 86 | 60 | 26 | |
| Verstappen | 284 points | 310 points | 336 points | 362 points |
388 points (champion) |
already champion | already champion | already champion | already champion |
| Perez’s deficit | 93 points | 101 points | 109 points | 117 points | 125 points | no options | no options | no options | no options |
| Leclerc deficit | 98 points | 109 points | 120 points | 131 points | 142 points | no options | no options | no options | no options |
The above logic obviously also applies to Leclerc, who is more likely to deduct points from Verstappen given the supporting role entrusted to the Mexican.
To prolong the wait until the Circuit of the Americas in Austin, Pérez and Leclerc need to leave Suzuka with a difference of less than 112 points. Pérez cannot lose more than 18 points in the next four races, and Leclerc only 23, taking into account that, with equal points, the sum of Verstappen’s victories would tip the balance for the Dutchman.
For the championship to last all the way to Mexico (at the Autodromo Hermanos Rodriguez race), both drivers must soon start overtaking Verstappen rather than give up more ground. Pérez has eight points to make up and Leclerc 13. Beyond Mexico, there are only 60 points at stake in Brazil and Abu Dhabi , so barring a dramatic turnaround, it doesn’t seem likely that Verstappen’s rivals will last that long.
Given the dominance of Verstappen and Red Bull, our prediction is that Suzuka at the Japanese GP will be the most likely setting for the Dutchman’s second coronation. If Leclerc and Ferrari can find some rhythm to turn the tables, or if Verstappen were to struggle, then Austin’s Circuit of the Americas could host its first title celebration since 2015.
But despite Verstappen’s almost insurmountable lead, Red Bull team principal Christian Horner is not giving in to complacency.
“I think as far as the championship tables go, they obviously look very good,” he said on Sunday night.
“But things can change very, very quickly. We’ve seen it, I think we were 46 points down when we left Australia and in a couple of races we managed to turn it around.”
“Our mind is on each race, one by one, and the championship tables will take care of themselves, so we just want to keep this momentum going,” he concluded. But smile, smile a lot…
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