The SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus pandemic already counts more than one million people with COVID-19 worldwide. But the big question is, really, how many people have been infected by the coronavirus , since the detection tests, which are limited, are not performed on all patients. Furthermore, experts estimate that there is an undetermined number of people who would present mild symptoms or, even, who are asymptomatic, with the potential to transmit the virus to the rest.
Spain is the second country in the world with the highest number of infected, and declared a state of alarm to contain the spread, which came into effect on March 15. It is important to know the details about the effect of these measures on the population, to be able to make conscious decisions.
With the aim of not only detecting, but also conducting an active search for the ‘invisible’ patients of this pandemic , in addition to obtaining a photo of the current confinement situation, the Covid19impact survey has been launched, an initiative of the work team of Experts in Data Sciences of the Generalitat Valenciana, coordinated by Nuria Oliver, data scientist and Data-Pop Alliance.
The questionnaire is made up of 24 questions that explore four areas about which you want to gain knowledge. Nuria Oliver has explained to Muy Interesante what it consists of:
“It is a tool to capture data that we did not have, and that allow us to make informed decisions about the situation.” The intention is to repeat this questionnaire among the Spanish population weekly , due to the changing situation in which we find ourselves. As Oliver explains: “We have to know how the containment is working, to know if perhaps other measures need to be implemented.”
The areas that the questionnaire measures, established by types of questions, are the following: a first area, which studies how social isolation measures work, if people go out and if they have contact with infected people. A second area that Oliver defines as economic and labor: “We know that the cost of this pandemic is very great and we want to have a sensor from the citizenry, and know what the economic impact is on their lives.” A third emotional area, to know what it means to be confined for a week, if this situation is sustainable and for how long. And finally, health questions, to find out if there are people with mild symptoms, and if the people who have tested positive correspond to the symptoms they present.
As Nuria explains: “We need to know how many people are really infected, because many are asymptomatic or mild, and because there is a great lack of diagnoses.”
First results
The first results of the first round of the Covid19impact survey have just been published. The comprehensive report offers a complete picture of Spanish society in these moments of confinement.
This first survey has been answered by 146,728 participants during a period of 44 hours. Furthermore, the analysis leads to 11 implications for the design of public policies related to the management of the COVID-19 pandemic.
The report, explaining the reasons, states that “there are unknowns regarding the sources of infection. Are friends, family, relatives, and co-workers the cause of infection? Or is it the haphazard interactions in supermarkets or at the bakery? “
In addition, they state that the economic impact that the COVID-19 crisis will have on people’s lives has not yet been quantified ”and that“ measuring the impact that COVID-19 is having on people’s finances is of great value to political leaders.
Could 15% of Spaniards be infected?
The report coordinated by Nuria Oliver is supported by recent work by the COVID-19 Response Team at Imperial College London in which it estimates that 15% of the Spanish population could be infected by COVID-19, infinitely higher figures of the official ones (seven million people compared to the 118,000 that are officially counted at this time). Shortly after the publication of this work, Imperial College removed it from its official website, for no apparent reason.
How to participate in the survey?
All questions are anonymized to preserve privacy and no personal information is collected. The survey can be accessed at http://covid19impactsurvey.org
