The significantly more contagious delta variant of the corona virus dominates in Germany. Nevertheless, the nationwide seven-day incidence has recently declined. What do experts expect in the near future?
Berlin – The virologist Christian Drosten considers the current calming of the nationwide corona infection numbers to be a temporary phenomenon. It can already be seen that the incidence in eastern German federal states is apparently picking up speed again regardless of the end of the holiday.
“I think there are now signs of the autumn and winter wave that we will probably see again in October,” said the scientist from the Berlin Charité on Tuesday evening in an excerpt from the podcast “Coronavirus Update” at NDR-Info.
According to figures from the Robert Koch Institute (RKI), the infection situation is currently relatively stable after a slight decline. The RKI gave the 7-day incidence on Wednesday as 61.0 (previous day: 60.3; previous week: 65.0; previous month: 74.1). Also with the hospitalization incidence – the most important parameter for a possible tightening of the corona restrictions – little is happening. On Wednesday it was 1.60 hospital admissions per 100,000 inhabitants and week (previous day 1.54), and thus 0.05 lower than the comparative value of the previous week.
The health authorities in Germany reported 11,780 new corona infections to the RKI within one day. A week ago, the value was 10,454 infections. According to the new information, 67 deaths were recorded across Germany within 24 hours. A week ago there were 71 deaths.
Not yet the start of the winter wave
The increase in the incidence of infections up to the beginning of September was due in particular to testing in schools after the end of the summer vacation and imported cases – and according to Drosten’s assessment, it was not necessarily the start of the winter wave. In view of the current rate of 64.3 percent (as of September 29) fully vaccinated in the population, he is assuming that they will start rolling this year at a point in time like last year, the corona expert told the broadcaster. At that time it was clear in the second half of October that “we are going into an exponential increase again”.
Closing the vaccination gaps must be a goal for society as a whole, stressed Drosten. It is important to convince people who have not yet been vaccinated or to get them to get vaccinated in some other way. This is no longer a scientific task, but a political one. The virologist assessed the current vaccination progress as inadequate. “The numbers look bad.” Denmark, for example, is in a significantly better position than Germany. Drosten referred to the uncertainty that more people in this country may already have been vaccinated than previously recorded in the reporting system. This is a “good hope” at the moment, but should not be the basis for decisions and planning.
Special medication for risk patients only
With regard to the treatment of Covid-19, the virologist pointed out that there are now better options for severe courses. In the early stages of infection, however, so-called monoclonal antibodies are available at best. These relatively expensive, according to Drosten, not very widely available preparations could be given to freshly infected unvaccinated people with certain risk factors. These funds are intended to prevent the development of a severe course of the disease.
He sees monoclonal antibodies as reserved for the few patients who cannot be vaccinated or who do not react to the vaccination, said Drosten. A preventive application in high-risk patients is also conceivable. “But none of that is a solution that would be generally recommended. And that is always the worse solution in competition with vaccinations. ”Dpa
